It is that time of the year when everyone is having a go at predicting what will happen to property prices in the UK in 2023.

As always, no one has a crystal ball to accurately predict how the UK property market will react and behave in 2023. 

Hometrack, the company owned by property portal Zoopla, has recently published a set of data on the state of play for the UK property market.  

Here is a summary of the main points highlighted:

  • “buyer demand” down more than 40% compared to last year and 44% since the day of the “mini’ budget. (Hometrack measure ‘demand’ as enquiries to agents for specific properties advertised on their website)
  • Inventory up compared to the summer but still 19% below the period 2017 – 2019 average.
  • 25% of homes for sale since September have had an asking price reduction, with price reductions being greatest in southern England where sales activity has fallen back the most.
  • Number of sales agreed down 28% compared to same period last year. New sales fell by half in the hottest markets, less in affordable areas. 

What are the experts predictions?

  • Five-year UK house price growth forecasts (2022-2026)
  • OBR: -1.2% (approx)
  • Lloyds Bank: +0.2% (base case)
  • Knight Frank: +1.5%
  • Savills: +6%
  • JLL: +8.9%
  • Strutt & Parker: +10-15% (range)

Estate agency Knight Frank forecasts prices will drop by 5% in 2023, and a further 5% in 2024.

Analysts Capital Economics predict house prices will fall by a total of 12% by mid-2024.
Natwest estimates that house prices will go down by 7% next year.

Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, Lloyds Bank Plc, revealed that it expects average house prices to fall by around 8% in 2023 – with a worst-case scenario involving a 17.9% crash (the best case is a 2.7% dip).
But the Nationwide warn that they could fall by 30%!!!! The banking giant’s base case assumption is currently that house prices will end the current five-year period (to 2026) roughly where they are now.

What’s your prediction for 2023? 

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